I said it earlier this year in CAR’s Formula One guide, and I’ll say it again, Sebastian Vettel will be crowned 2011 Formula One Drivers Champion. I can hear the Alonso fans groaning from here (they are almost as whiny as the Spaniard is) that he stands a chance of stemming the Vettel tide, but that really is grasping at straws.
Many drivers enjoy the challenge that is the Marina Bay Street Circuit. The 5,073 km track is bathed in “daylight” by thousands of bulbs so that drivers can race around in the middle of the night in complete safety. While fans will be hoping for a hard-fought and entertaining race, much of this weekend’s banter will revolve around Sebastian Vettel becoming the youngest double world champ.
In 2010 Vettel had to fight hard and only took the lead of the points table at the last race in Abu Dhabi (with a little help from Vitaly Petrov), to be crowned the youngest champion in the sport’s history. 2011 has been a complete reversal. Vettel has lead from the first time the flag dropped in Australia. He has won eight times during the course of the season – his worst finish all season has been a “dismal” fourth – and no other driver has led the point’s log. At present he has a commanding 113 point lead with just six races left to run (Singapore, Japan, Korea, India, Abu Dhabi and Brazil). Theoretically there are few drivers that can challenge Seb’s second title, but you would not bet on that happening.
If Vettel were to win this weekend’s race, he would have an unassailable lead with a maximum of 125 points remaining for any one driver. In reality the German only needs to score 13 points to successfully defend his title, even if Alonso were to match his points tally at season’s end, Vettel would have more victories (eight at present) and would therefore be crowned champion. You can rest assured that Red Bull has already printed the celebratory caps and T-shirts.
Here are the permutations that will allow Vettel to walk away from Singapore as champion:
* He wins and neither Alonso, Button or Webber come second.
• He comes second and Alonso finishes eighth or lower, Button and Webber finish fifth or lower and Hamilton does not win.
• He finishes third, Alonso finishes ninth or lower, Button and Webber finish seventh or lower and Hamilton is not on the podium.
• If Vettel finishes fourth or lower, he cannot be crowned champion in Singapore, even if all of his rivals fail to score points – Alonso would still be in with a mathematical chance of stealing the crown.
Fernando Alonso, as always, talks a good game and he is hoping for another win on the street circuit. The Spaniard is the most successful driver at this circuit, though with a little help from his friends (read: team-mate), taking two victories in the three times this race has taken place.
Lewis Hamilton has almost conceded the 2011 title already, but the young Englishman – the only other driver victorious on the street of Singapore – will be looking for a win none the less. His aggressive driving style, however, may not be the right tonic for the tight confines of a street circuit as he found out last year when he had a coming-together with Mark Webber.
Of course, Singapore has a history of safety car deployment so varying one’s proposed strategy may play a role in the outcome.
If Sebastian Vettel manages to claim another pole postion, I am willing to bet it will be game over in the title race. In all likelihood he will romp away to another win and his second world title.
