The HIV/Aids epidemic is depleting the South African workforce and is undermining business confidence in the country, warned Neil Bruton, executive director of Trendline Data Dynamics, at the CAR Conference.
The HIV/Aids epidemic is depleting the South African workforce and is undermining business confidence in the country, warned Neil Bruton, executive director of Trendline Data Dynamics, at the CAR Conference.
Bruton, whose company conducts research for the motor industry, said South Africa had more people living with the disease than any other country. About 5 000 people are dying a week in SA and there are 1 800 new infections each day. “The cold, hard facts are that the consumers of the future won’t be there.
“The disease is also depleting the workforce, especially when the skilled labour is affected, plus it is affecting the GDP. A BusinessMap investor survey in January this year found that the spread of HIV/Aids had contributed to the decline of foreign direct innvestment in the country.
”The potential for economic growth is reduced potentially by up to two per cent per year.” He said business’ productivity and profitability would be
affected by absenteeism (through sickness and funerals), increases in accidents, loss of skills and labour (sickness, death and emigration),
employee morale, industrial relations issues and increased costs.
In the SA motor industry, the epidemic would affect quality, costs and export pricing, delivery times of vehicles and labour.
He said ING Barings estimates that by 2015 nearly nine per cent of SA’s highly-skilled labour force and 19 per cent of all skilled labourers will be infected with HIV.
These factors will affect the country’s ability to compete with other emerging nations as the world market gets more competitive and will lead to a drop in export performance.
The vehicle market in South Africa is also not growing and Bruton said with lower GDP growth will be a lower demand for new vehicles. He also pointed
out that by 2005 four million families with incomes of between R2 500 and R8 000 per month could face up to 20 per cent reduction in spending because of increased medical and health costs.
He said globally 14 million children had been orphaned by HIV/Aids by 2001 and this was a worrying issue.
Programmes dealing with the disease were vital. “We need to take action as HIV/Aids is this country’s number one enemy,” he said.
