The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (Naamsa) today released depressed, yet encouraging, results of new-vehicle sales for the month of November 2011. As during October, all segments of the market registered an improvement on the corresponding month last year, despite the relatively high base, but did show a slowing in the month-on-month growth rate when compared with October. A gloomy outlook for new-vehicle sales for the remainder of the year remains, but it appears that new-vehicle sales for the year should beat industry forecasts.
Aggregate industry domestic sales for the month of November improved by 5 181 units (11,7 per cent) to 49 499 vehicles compared with November last year. Total year-to-date domestic new-vehicle sales for the first eleven months of 2011 now stands 16,0 per cent ahead of the corresponding months in 2010, and remains above industry forecasts.
New-car sales reflected and improvement of 3 555 units (12,0 per cent). This represents a siginificant slowing of growth in this segment and is probably as a result of the decline in demand from the rental market, which has boosted sales over the last three months.
Sales of new light commercials, bakkies and minibuses managed strong performances and registered an increase of 12,2 per cent compared with November 2010. This segment remains buoyant (up 11,5 per cent for the first eleven months of 2011 compared with the same period during 2010).
Sales of vehicles in the medium and heavy commercial segments also reflected positive results, with an increase of 55 units (7,0 per cent) in the case of medium commercials and 37 units (2,6 per cent) in the case of heavy trucks and buses when compared with November last year.
Exports of SA-built vehicles in November reflected a continued decline of 8 084 units (28,3 per cent), compared with the relatively high base of November last year, due to a moderation in demand in various international markets. The start of production of the Ford Ranger should see things improving in the December and the first part of 2012.
The decline in the rate of growth in the new-vehicle sales cycle was consistent with the slower economic growth recorded in the general economy. The low interest rate environment and corresponding lower debt servicing costs, declining new-vehicle prices in real terms, the competitive trading environment and new model introductions should support domestic sales over the medium term. Growth was anticipated however to be at a more subdued rate in line with the overall performance of the South African economy. The direction of the global economy remained uncertain and international financial markets continued to be characterised by extreme volatility and turbulence. Prospects of lower global growth, particularly in developed economies, could impact on industry export sales going forward.
For interest’ sake, Naamsa welcomes participation of Great Wall Motors SA (GWM), who for the time being will be reporting in aggregated terms.
Please note these volumes are not included in the attached Naamsa new-vehicle sales report.
GWM’s monthly volumes for 2011 were:
January 2011: 401
February 2011: 494
March 2011: 518
April 2011: 440
May 2011: 509
June 2011: 559
July 2011: 562
August 2011: 616
September 2011: 740
October 2011: 613
November 2011: 686
