Following a substantial reduction in fuel costs courtesy of external factors for June, it seems that July will experience the same reprieve with early data suggesting another R1.00+ decrease.
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Early predictions of a significant decrease in petrol prices may soon become a reality at the pumps in July, providing much-needed relief for South African motorists. Recent data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates that fuel recoveries have been in favour of drivers, with both petrol and diesel showing substantial over-recoveries this month. If these trends continue, July will mark the second consecutive month of petrol price cuts. In June, petrol prices decreased by as much as R1.24 per litre, while diesel prices dropped by between R1.08 and R1.18 per litre.
Have a look at the official figures here: June Fuel Price Decrease – Coastal and Inland Prices
Current CEF data suggests even more promising reductions for July, with petrol over-recoveries between R1.47 and R1.52 per litre and diesel over-recoveries ranging from 92 cents to R1.02 per litre. These adjustments are primarily driven by a significant drop in the global oil price, which has fallen below $80 per barrel. Despite the rand’s depreciation since the 2024 general election, the lower oil prices have offset the adverse effects, leading to the current over-recoveries.
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While the oil market remains volatile, with potential rebounds in prices due to geopolitical risks and supply adjustments by OPEC+, the current trend suggests a continued decline in fuel costs. South African motorists, who have faced petrol price increases of about R5.00 per litre since 2022, may soon experience significant relief if the current trends hold, easing the pressure on inflation and providing a welcome respite during the school holidays. The final adjustments will be made before midnight on the 3rd of July – the first Wednesday of the month.
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